Tesla’s $8.5 Trillion Valuation Dream Hinges on Robotaxis and Musk’s Vision

Elon Musk's ambitious $8.5 trillion valuation target for Tesla would eclipse the combined market cap of Microsoft and Nvidia, the world's two most valuable companies. Shareholders will vote on the proposal in November, but skepticism remains given Tesla's current $1 trillion valuation—a figure buoyed more by investor faith than fundamentals.

The company trades at a frothy 75 times EBITDA, with deliveries declining last year. Investors are betting on unproven markets, particularly autonomous vehicles. Tesla's compensation plan ties milestones to robotaxis and its Optimus humanoid robot, signaling where the board sees growth.

A small robotaxi fleet already operates in Austin, Texas, with Musk targeting one million autonomous vehicles. ARK Invest projects a $7-$11 trillion valuation by 2029, predicated on a global robotaxi network generating up to $603 billion annually.